Campaigners against fossil fuel extraction have called for a block on UK oil and gas developments following the latest scientific report on climate change, published this morning.
The study, from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is described by the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres as a “code red for humanity”.
It warns that humans have caused ‘unprecedented’ and ‘irreversible’ change to climate.
The damage to the climate caused by human activity is a “statement of fact” and “it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, oceans and land”.
“Human induced climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe.”
The report looks at the impacts of limiting global warming of 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. It is the first of its kind since 2013 and reviewed more than 14,000 scientific papers. It has been endorsed by national governments.
The key findings of the report
- The 1.5C increase could be reached by 2031
- A 2m rise in sea levels by the end of the century cannot be ruled out
- But deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions could stabilise rising temperatures
The IPCC warns:
“Unless there are immediate, rapid, and large-scale reduction in greenhouse gas emissions limiting warming to 1.5 degrees will be beyond reach”.
If emissions do not fall in the next two decades, then a 3C rise looks likely and if there is no fall then the world is on track for a 4C to 5C rise.
The report said global surface temperature was 1.09C higher in the decade between 2011-2020 than between 1850-1900.
The past five years have been the hottest on record since 1850. The recent rate of sea level rise has nearly tripled compared with 1901-1971.
Human influence is “very likely” (90%) the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s and the decrease in Arctic sea-ice.
Links to full report (247 MB) and individual chapters
Antonia Guterres said:
“[This report] is a code red for humanity. The alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is irrefutable: greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel burning and deforestation are choking our planet and putting billions of people at immediate risk.”
He added on a statement:
“Countries should also end all new fossil fuel exploration and production, and shift fossil fuel subsidies into renewable energy.”
The UK onshore industry regularly argues that domestically—produced fossil fuels have a lower carbon footprint, compared with some imports. It also points to a potential role for UK onshore methane in producing fossil hydrogen.
But campaign groups were quick to respond today to the report and its warnings.
Free East Yorkshire urged people to object to plans by Rathlin Energy for an expansion of exploration and production in Holderness. The group’s spokesperson, Richard Howarth, said:
“Even as our climate breaks down around us with biblical fires and floods raging all around, plans are made to industrialise the East Yorkshire countryside into an oil and gas field, developing brand new sources of filthy, outdated fossil fuels. In 2021. It’s utter madness. This new IPCC report makes it clearer than ever: for our very survival, we need to stop all new oil drilling. Now.
The more people object, the more chance it will be stopped. We encourage everyone, everywhere to take 5 minutes to submit a one-word comment: Object.”
David Burley, of Frack Free South Yorkshire, said:
“For companies wishing to explore and produce shale gas in the UK it is too late. Game over. Time to relinquish those UK shale gas licences.”
Connor Schwartz, climate campaigner at Friends of the Earth, said:
“Every fraction of a degree now matters more than ever. Loud wake-up calls have been sounding for years but world leaders have chronically over-slept, and people are paying the price with their lives.
“If we want a habitable planet, the window is just about still open, that’s today’s report in a nutshell.
“If the government wants to show they respect the world’s leading scientists on climate chaos, they can start by cancelling the Cambo oil field, scrapping the coal mine in Cumbria, and ending UK funding for the mega-gas project in Mozambique: they can do that today.”
Friends of the Earth Scotland’s climate and energy campaigner, Caroline Rance, said:
“This report should make alarming reading for everyone on earth. The conclusions of the world’s best scientists make it clear that if we are to avert further climate breakdown we must urgently phase out fossil fuels. That means rejecting new oil and gas developments like the Cambo field and for Governments to sit down with workers and communities to plan a fair transition away from oil and gas.
“The Scottish Government should be acting on the advice of these climate scientists not listening to oil companies and big polluters who are putting their profits above the survival of millions of people.”
Last week, an open letter signed by 80,000 people was delivered to Downing Street urging the UK Government to stop the vast new Cambo oil field off Shetland. The field contains around 800 million barrels of oil and the first phase of its development would create pollution equivalent to 16 coal fired power stations.
Onshore, as well as Rathlin Energy expansion proposals, there are schemes going through the planning system for oil and gas operations in Surrey and the Isle of Wight (UK Oil & Gas plc), Rotherham (Ineos), Cheshire (IGas). Angus Energy is planning to revive gas production at Saltfleetby in Lincolnshire and Egdon Resources is preparing for oil production at Wressle, near Scunthorpe.
Yesterday, Alok Sharma, the chair of the COP26 climate conference in November, described the report as “the starkest warning yet” and that the world would face “catastrophe” if urgent action was not taken.
But he did not rule out future oil and gas licences. He told the Observer:
“Future licences are going to have to adhere to the fact we have committed to go to net zero by 2050 in legislation.
“There will be a climate check on any licences.”
Today, Boris Johnson said:
“Today’s report makes for sobering reading, and it is clear that the next decade is going to be pivotal to securing the future of our planet…I hope today’s report will be a wake-up call for the world to take action now, before we meet in Glasgow in November for the critical COP26 summit.“
Doug Parr, chief scientist at Greenpeace UK, said:
“This is not the first generation of world leaders to be warned by scientists about the gravity of the climate crisis, but they’re the last that can afford to ignore them. The increasing frequency, scale and intensity of climate disasters that have scorched and flooded many parts of the world in recent months is the result of past inaction. Unless world leaders finally start to act on these warnings, things will get much, much worse.”
Ruth Hayhurst will be sending reports for DrillOrDrop from the COP26 conference in Glasgow in November .
DRILL OR DROP? 
I can’t say more than what has been said above , “This report should make alarming reading for everyone on earth. The conclusions of the world’s best scientists make it clear that if we are to avert further climate breakdown we must urgently phase out fossil fuels.
No doubt some here will accuse of fear mongering , as usual.
Alok Sharma not ruling out future oil & gas licences: “Future licences are going to have to adhere to the fact we have committed to go to net zero by 2050 in legislation. There will be a climate check on any licences.”
However, some experts predict that several areas of the world will become uninhabitable within one decade.
Indicating a leisurely timespan of ’50 years’ shows that the government has still not understood the intensity and extent of this Climate Emergency ?
Rather 29 years is still much too late when significant mitigation is required within this decade.
Interesting response, but no solutions offered. Stopping something needs to be replaced by something that adds up to the first something.
Meanwhile, I noticed a total failure to address the little issue of how fuel duty will be replaced. More tax elsewhere or less expenditure? The only choices available, but no one is willing to suggest which-yet. It will have to emerge, and it will not be the usual nonsense that the Government will pay. They won’t because they don’t. No wonder it is all being kept silent, and the subsidy fossil fuels provide to the rest of the UK economy is being denied. (Just compare UK fuel price with US fuel prices and ask “why the difference?”)
(Not sure it was wise to say the damage has been done and is not reversible. Will that gain anything from China?)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58141607
On the same BBC news webpage as the IPCC report this morning in case you missed it:
Saudi oil giant Aramco sees profits soar by almost 300%.
“Saudi Arabian energy giant Aramco has seen its profits jump almost four times boosted by a rise in oil prices as demand recovers.
The company added that the easing of Covid restrictions, vaccinations, stimulus measures and the return of economic activity have supported results.
Crude oil prices have risen by more than 30% since the start of the year.
Aramco’s chief executive also gave an upbeat assessment for the rest of 2021.
The firm, which is the world’s biggest oil producer, said net income rose by 288% to $25.5bn (£18.4bn) for the second quarter.
“Our second quarter results reflect a strong rebound in worldwide energy demand and we are heading into the second half of 2021 more resilient and more flexible, as the global recovery gains momentum,” Amin Nasser said in a statement.”
And Enemies of UK Industry are worried about the Cambo oilfield with reserves of only 800million bbls?
Saudi Arabia – proven oil reserves – 268,000 million bbls….
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Saudi_Arabia
Major Oil Drilling Planned in East Yorkshire – Object here
https://fossilfreeeastyorkshire.org/wna-expansion/
A report that substantiates the fact that there is no alternative, no plan ‘B’. Each and every one of us, along with worldwide governments, needs to take dramatic action to avert catastrophe. Many of us have been banging away about this for oh so many years and yet there are many who still refuse to listen. The fossil fuel industry is trying to sell itself as part of the solution, by for example, producing Hydrogen (brown hydrogen) from natural gas, failing to point out that this is the dirtiest, most polluting method of production. Some are also selling themselves as transition companies, transitioning from fossil fuels towards renewable energy, but hoping no one will notice that they continue to seek to extract fossil fuels, stating that they need the revenue (profits) from their fossil fuel activities in order to fund their transition. Simply absurd!
There is no alternative. There will be obstacles, but they cannot be allowed to prevent action, for action is now more of an imperative than ever before. The search for new sources of fossil fuels must be stopped worldwide now, for there are no longer any excuses to continue down this route, Indeed using all the known reserves will push the planet beyond the 1.5 degree limit.
I suggest you start with Saudi Aramco Malcolm. Although you probably wouldn’t get a visa. And if you got in you probably wouldn’t get out again. How about Norway, much closer to home, no visa required, 2,000,000 bbls oil and gas liquids / day, oil reserves just under 10billion bbls?
https://www.geoexpro.com/articles/2020/10/norway-surprises-with-25th-oil-and-gas-licensing-round
“Norway Surprises with 25th Oil and Gas Licensing Round
Known for being a country with some of the greenest credentials and policies in the world, Norway surprised many observers in June by announcing plans for a licensing round that signalled a major expansion of the availability of areas for oil exploration in the Norwegian sector of the Arctic Sea.”
https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/25.-konsesjonsrunde-syv-selskaper-tilbys-andeler-i-fire-utvinningstillatelser/id2863050/
The following companies were offered shares (shares/operatorship) in the Norwegian 25th licencing round in 2021:
A/S Norske Shell (1/0)
Equinor Energy AS (2/2)
Idemitsu Petroleum Norge AS (1/0)
INEOS E&P Norge AS (1/1)
Lundin Energy Norway AS (2/0)
OMV (Norway) AS (1/0)
Vår Energi AS (1/1)
INEOS? Better there than here I hear you say…….
Maybe so, Paul
I believe Norway banned “non-emergency” flaring in the North Sea 50 years ago. UK has a target of 2025 to stop this practice. At its peak, emissions from UK gas flaring equivalent to heating 1,000,000 homes.
UK flares 11x as much gas as Norway.
https://www.oedigital.com/news/485961-oga-uk-north-sea-flaring-dropped-by-22-in-2020#:~:text=Flaring%20in%20the%20UK%20North%20Sea%20dropped%20by,the%20UK%20Oil%20and%20Gas%20Authority%20said%20Thursday.
https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2021/02/01/north-sea-oil-flaring-climate-change/
But they still hunt, kill and eat whales, Paul.
And, their taxation of oil and gas has allowed them to build up a Sovereign Wealth fund in excess of $1 trillion. Nothing for the UK NHS, but their health service is superb. Maybe why they issue new licenses?
By all means tighten up any areas that require it in the N. Sea, but that just shows that if in your own waters, or on your own land, then it is possible to control the controllables. If elsewhere, then protest until the cows come home, but no progress.
Yes, a lot of individuals who refuse to accept and “bank” reductions in transport emissions, Malcolm. And why? Simply because it doesn’t fit their dogma. And the same for hydrogen. Arguing about the colour of it, and expecting some mythical being to fund development of their ideal whilst advocating turning away funding from fossil fuel companies-because that doesn’t fit their dogma. Good job it will happen, anyway.
Not interested in progress, just protest. So, many of the each and everyone, will simply decide they will do nothing, because anything they do will be denied as progress if it doesn’t meet a certain dogma.
No, the rest of the world will not follow that sort of lead. It is simply absurd!
Thanks Paul. So Norway’s tightening up of their gas flaring means it is acceptable to open up the Artic for oil and gas exploration? The point I was trying to make….. And the oil and gas they produce and export doesn’t contribute to climate change? Presumably Equinor (Statoil) is one of the companies Malcolm is talking about:
“Some are also selling themselves as transition companies, transitioning from fossil fuels towards renewable energy, but hoping no one will notice that they continue to seek to extract fossil fuels, stating that they need the revenue (profits) from their fossil fuel activities in order to fund their transition. Simply absurd!”
Protest until you’re sick of it, object incessantly, urge increased government action, badger your MP – work to wake up those of our compatriots and contemporaries who reject action and prefer to rely on conscience-free market forces. The time is now.