Ambitious claims about potential production from a shale gas discovery in Lincolnshire have been described as “so misleading as to be ridiculous”.

The company behind the claims, the Texas-based Heyco Energy Group, said results of an assessment of the field around Gainsborough were “outstanding”.

Heyco said the gasfield, known as the Gainsborough Trough, would produce for 36 years, with production totalling 15.8 trillion cubic feet (tcf).

It said this was “enough total energy to power the entire United Kingdom for 6.7 years at current consumption rates”.

The company also said: “in its peak production year, the Gainsborough could supply 87% of UK natural gas demand”.

But a commentator on the UK fracking industry has said these claims appeared to be “logically incompatible”.

The claims were made by Heyco’s chair and chief executive, George Yates, at a Lincolnshire County Council conference this week. His company owns Egdon Resources, which has stakes in hydrocarbon licences in the gasfield.

Mr Yates said the figures were based on findings from an assessment by Deloitte Consulting.

The claims have now been examined by the website, Refracktion, which analyses statements from the shale gas industry. Refracktion used a model based on one developed by the industry trade body, UK Onshore Oil and Gas (UKOOG).

DrillOrDrop and Refracktion asked Egdon for a copy of the Deloitte report to review the methodology. Egdon’s PR company said:“The report is not being issued at the moment”. It also said Egdon was standing by Deloitte’s findings.

Refracktion’s conclusions

Refracktion said:

“I simply do not believe that it is possible to realistically model a scenario where 15.8 tcf of natural gas is extracted over a period of 36 years while meeting 87% of the UK’s realistically forecast natural gas demand in its peak production year.

“The three claims would appear to be logically incompatible.

“Without visibility of a methodology that supports them, the conclusion has to be that these claims made together are unsustainable.”

Refracktion used UKOOG’s mid-point estimate for Estimated Ultimate Recovery of 5.5 billion cubic feet (bcf) of shale gas per lateral well and assumed that each well pad would accommodate 40 lateral wells.

Refracktion said this gave a pattern of development which would ramp up quickly, something claimed by Heyco. It also allowed the required production to continue for 36 years and generate 15.8tcf of gas.

Refracktion calculated what this meant in terms of expected production per year, based on UKOOG’s 20-year type curve, which models the hyperbolic decline curve of each well drilled.

Refracktion then compared these to the forecasts for UK gas demand contained in the National Grid Future Energy Scenarios for 2022, which modelled demand to 2050. Refracktion used the “falling short” scenario, which it said appeared to be the most likely in the current geo-political situation.

Based on these assumptions, Refracktion said:

“To achieve a total output of 15.8 tcf would require around 72 x 40 well pads, or 2,880 lateral wells. UKOOG’s modelling assumed that each pad would take eight years to fully develop 40 wells on each pad.

“The claim that ‘87% of UK gas demand could be met by Gainsborough in its peak production year’ would appear to be impossible to sustain, assuming UKOOG’s methodology is logical (which it would appear to me to be).

“The only way I could see that being modelled within the constraints specified would be to use a much lower demand forecast along with some extremely steep decline curves, which would both be totally unrealistic. How have they got to their result? We don’t know.”

According to Refracktion’s modelling, it takes 12 years (to 2037) for the forecast production to reach just 44% of UK gas demand and it never gets higher. No other parameters “had any material impact” on the result, Refracktion said. The commentator added:

“Even by modelling the building of ALL 72 well pads in year one (and drilling 2880 lateral wells in the first year would be a ludicrous proposition) I only get to 57% of UK demand in year 7 (2032) and the production stops in 2051, 10 years short of the lifetime the claim.”

“Powering the UK for 6.7 years”

Refracktion also questioned Heyco’s claim that shale gas from the Gainsborough Trough would power the entire UK for 6.7 years at current consumption rates.

UK gas demand in 2024 was 2.5 tcf, according to the US Energy Information Administration. This would require 16.75tcf over 6.7 years (6% more than Heyco estimated the total production of the Gainsborough Trough).

Refracktion said:

“Gas usage accounts currently for only about 30% of the power used in the UK. The idea that this shale gas resource could ‘power the entire United Kingdom for 6.7 years at current consumption rates’ is so misleading as to be ridiculous.

“Meeting the UK’s gas demand is just not the same thing as “power(ing) the entire United Kingdom.”

DrillOrDrop asked Egdon to comment on Refracktion’s conclusions. A spokesperson for the company said:

“We have commissioned Deloitte to undertake this work and we stand by the conclusions of their report which is supported by the graphs as shown by Mr Yates at the recent conference.”

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