Environmental Data Services reports a forecast by the International Energy Agency that the UK could produce 3 billion cubic metres (bcm) of shale gas by 2035 – or 3% of annual demand. That is said to be the equivalent to commercial production from 10 wells and far below that predicted earlier this year by the Institute of Directors in its report, funded by Cuadrilla. The figures, in the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2013, are the organisation’s first UK specific forecast.

Last year, according to calculations by ENDS, the IEA forecast UK production at 11.5bcm in 2035, or 12% of national annual demand. This year’s forecast, ENDS says, is based on the IEA’s “new policies scenario” which takes a “generally cautious view of the prospects of production.”

• The IEA report, available online, costs 120 euros
• ENDS is available on subscription but can be read online free on a month’s trial