As two companies prepare to frack in northern England in the next few months, DrillOrDrop reviews new predictions about the future role of shale gas in the UK.
Fracking and energy security
The Gas Security Supply Strategic Assessment (12 October 2017), commissioned by the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, did not include any contribution from shale gas in its predictions about future UK gas supply.
In 10 references to shale gas, the 29-page assessment said the product of fracking could “provide a valuable new source of gas” at a time when supplies from the North Sea were forecast to decline. Shale gas and biomethane would reduce reliance on imports and contribute to economic growth, it said.
But it concluded that shale gas was not needed to guarantee secure supply. The assessment stated:
“We are secure now, and the GB gas system is well placed to continue to be secure and robust in a range of supply and demand outcomes over the next two decades.”
The assessment calculated that there would need to be a loss 60-70% of supply capacity before there was any interruption in supply. A 60% loss represented losing all liquefied natural gas supply, all imports from Belgium and Netherlands and 50% of current UK production.
The assessment acknowledged that the UK Government was “optimistic” about shale gas. But the conclusions appeared to challenge the view taken by ministers that shale gas would lead to much-needed energy security.
Steve Mason, from the cross-party pressure group Frack Free United, responded to the conclusions of the assessment:
“This is getting ridiculous. All the so-called arguments for fracking are toppling like dominoes. The evidence is stacked so high against the industry, only their corporate muscle keeps fracking on the agenda.
“This Tory government is backing fracking and forging on with a ludicrous dirty energy policy. It is time for them to wake up and listen to their own reports, the voice of the public in areas under threat and halt all fracking activity now.”
Fracking and green growth
The Government’s Clean Growth Strategy, launched by the Prime Minister (12 October 2017), had no references to shale gas or fracking in its 165 pages.
There were five references to natural gas, including the acknowledgement that heating homes, businesses and industry accounted for nearly half of all UK energy use and a third of carbon emissions.
The document also acknowledged:
“Nearly 70 per cent of our heat is produced from natural gas”.
But it concluded:
“Meeting our target of reducing emissions by at least 80 per cent by 2050 implies decarbonising nearly all heat in buildings and most industrial processes. Reducing the demand for heat through improved energy efficiency will have an important role to play but will not by itself suffice to meet our 2050 target.”
It said the UK needed to increase the pace of decarbonisation if it were to meet the carbon budgets for the period 2023-2032 and referred to “decarbonising the gas grid by substituting natural gas with low carbon gases like biogas and hydrogen.”
The document set out polices on green financing, carbon capture and storage demonstration, improved business, industrial and home energy efficiency, low carbon transport, the phase-out of unabated coal for electricity generation by 2025, new nuclear power, a new network of forests, peat restoration, a new system of agricultural support and zero avoidable waste by 2050.
There were no policies to promote unconventional gas and oil, including shale gas or hydraulic fracturing.
The report’s conclusions appeared to conflict with the case made by the onshore oil and gas industry in support of shale. Its organisation, UKOOG, regularly states that shale gas is a bridge to a low carbon economy. UKOOG repeated this case in its response to the document’s conclusions:
“By replacing high lifecycle emission LNG imports with natural gas produced onshore, we can help to reduce the UK’s carbon footprint and provide a cost-effective source of energy and feedstock for our homes, businesses and industry.
“Natural gas will continue to be a critical fuel for the UK in the transition to a low carbon economy. As the report makes clear, the reforming of methane with Carbon Capture and Storage is likely to be the primary means of producing low carbon hydrogen, which has great potential to decarbonise heating, transport and industry and improve air quality.”
Keith Taylor, Green Party MEP and member of the European Parliament’s environment committee, said of fracking:
“We’ve been told time and again that this dirty, dangerous and destructive process is a necessary ‘bridge’ to our clean energy future. Turns out we’ve been lied to – not even the Government believes that guff. If it did, fracking would surely be part of this ‘clean’ growth strategy.
“It is clearer than ever that Ministers’ commitment to fast-tracking fracking across England – while our neighbours in Ireland, Scotland and Wales are all moving towards banning extreme energy exploration – is entirely ideologically driven. It’s a commitment that will ensure – as the strategy makes clear – the UK will fail to meet its legally-binding climate change targets under the Climate Change Act .”
Claire Stephenson, of the campaign group, Frack Free Lancashire, said:
“It’s unbelievable that the UK government are still insisting on forcing fracking onto unwilling communities when all scientific and public opinion is pointing the other way.
“If we are to meet our climate change obligations and truly have a chance at a clean future, we must immediately abandon the dangerous and misguided folly that is fracking.”
Fracking and the local economy
The regional pro-fracking group, Lancashire for Shale, showcased the benefits of unconventional gas industry to local companies at a conference earlier this month (9 October 2017).
DrillOrDrop’s request to attend the event was turned down. The following material is from a press statement from Lancashire for Shale and the organisation’s publicity video (see below).
Cuadrilla’s Chief Executive, Francis Egan, was a speaker at the event:
“Whilst the industry is still at an early stage, we continue to put local suppliers first wherever possible and are proud to be employing local people.
“The future opportunities for Lancashire manufacturing and engineering businesses are considerable as the shale gas industry grows”.
Another speaker, US energy consultant, Katie Klaber, reportedly described the impact of shale gas on the Marcellus region of Pennsylvania.
“There are a lot of opportunities for local manufacturing and engineering firms, for instance making tanks for water storage and other fabrication. And then there’s all the ongoing maintenance. It’s much more cost-effective to use local suppliers.
“Shale gas here [in Pennsylvania] has boosted the manufacturing economy more broadly by making energy more secure and affordable. It’s also encouraged the reshoring of some manufacturing capacity that had gone abroad, and that’s had a knock-on benefit. There’s no doubt it’s been responsible for billions of new investment.”
A more cautious approach to the role of shale gas to the region’s economy was published three days later by the think tank, the Institute for Public Policy Research.
A Northern Energy Strategy (12/10/2017) said:
“Shale gas has garnered significant opposition from local communities and may be too environmentally risky to proceed with.”
It recommended several preconditions before shale gas was developed in the UK:
“A clear, consistent and universally applied regulatory framework for shale gas extraction (within the remit of the Environment Agency);
“Shale gas use should displace, rather than add to imported gas consumption, as argued by the Committee on Climate Change (2016);
“The government should establish a Sovereign Wealth Fund to ‘bank’ the benefits of government revenues on shale gas and use them to forward fund the continued development of the energy system of the North, as well as offering individual and community benefits.”
The report also said:
“Government must reinvigorate its interest in CCS technology and establish some form of Catapult Centre for CCS in the North as one of a number of pre-conditions to any extraction of shale gas.”
it feels as if I spend most of my time gainsaying transport opinions LOL. Anyway, I noticed yesterday that Lothian buses (Edinburgh) have bought six new full electrics. I thought it was a wind up. Not much difference in price and performance to the current diesel electric hybrids. However one of the Lothian drivers told me that most of his cohort regularly close their own windows on Princes Street. It has quite a sizeable footfall any day of the week but Saturday morning is very busy and I reckon the council is desperate to cut down emissions in the busiest street in the town We can have the same vehicles in all city centres if we want clean breathable air. We’re advancing so quickly, I think soon we’ll be able to harness the background cosmic radiation Many thanks to Ruth for publishing this interesting report.
Thanks for this report Ruth and team. It’s a shame those who are still jumping to the shale gas beat cannot accept the latest information, shown by their comments in older posts.
I think the only government to support this industry is on borrowed time. This and the constant ‘pinching’ of social policies already put forward by the opposition is propping them up for now; who knows, based on the current information, they might even ‘pinch’ the policy of banning fracking in the UK? Now there’s a thought…..